DEMO CREDITS · NO CASH VALUEList a company Your bets

SABLE ANALYTICS800 by OCT 15YES 33¢NO 67¢$0 BETDRIFTWOOD GAMES25,000 by OCT 24YES 64¢NO 36¢$0 BETHARBOR COFFEE CLUB2,000 by OCT 31YES 47¢NO 53¢$0 BETLUMEN AI$25K by OCT 31YES 79¢NO 21¢$1,369 BETORBIT ROBOTICS1,000 by NOV 1YES 41¢NO 59¢$0 BETNIMBUS NOTES50,000 by NOV 7YES 58¢NO 42¢$0 BETRIVER HEALTH500 by NOV 15YES 46¢NO 54¢$18 BETMARIGOLD MEALS1,000 by NOV 20YES 52¢NO 48¢$0 BETFIELDNOTE STUDIO$12K by NOV 30YES 55¢NO 45¢$0 BETSCAFFOLD LABS10,000 by NOV 30YES 60¢NO 40¢$48 BETPINECONE LEARNING3,000 by DEC 1YES 71¢NO 29¢$0 BETKESTREL SECURITY$250K by DEC 15YES 38¢NO 62¢$0 BETCOPPERLINE STUDIO250,000 by DEC 31YES 60¢NO 40¢$0 BETQUILL HEALTH$40K by DEC 31YES 44¢NO 56¢$0 BETTHE LEDGER LETTER100,000 by DEC 31YES 66¢NO 34¢$0 BETSABLE ANALYTICS800 by OCT 15YES 33¢NO 67¢$0 BETDRIFTWOOD GAMES25,000 by OCT 24YES 64¢NO 36¢$0 BETHARBOR COFFEE CLUB2,000 by OCT 31YES 47¢NO 53¢$0 BETLUMEN AI$25K by OCT 31YES 79¢NO 21¢$1,369 BETORBIT ROBOTICS1,000 by NOV 1YES 41¢NO 59¢$0 BETNIMBUS NOTES50,000 by NOV 7YES 58¢NO 42¢$0 BETRIVER HEALTH500 by NOV 15YES 46¢NO 54¢$18 BETMARIGOLD MEALS1,000 by NOV 20YES 52¢NO 48¢$0 BETFIELDNOTE STUDIO$12K by NOV 30YES 55¢NO 45¢$0 BETSCAFFOLD LABS10,000 by NOV 30YES 60¢NO 40¢$48 BETPINECONE LEARNING3,000 by DEC 1YES 71¢NO 29¢$0 BETKESTREL SECURITY$250K by DEC 15YES 38¢NO 62¢$0 BETCOPPERLINE STUDIO250,000 by DEC 31YES 60¢NO 40¢$0 BETQUILL HEALTH$40K by DEC 31YES 44¢NO 56¢$0 BETTHE LEDGER LETTER100,000 by DEC 31YES 66¢NO 34¢$0 BETSABLE ANALYTICS800 by OCT 15YES 33¢NO 67¢$0 BETDRIFTWOOD GAMES25,000 by OCT 24YES 64¢NO 36¢$0 BETHARBOR COFFEE CLUB2,000 by OCT 31YES 47¢NO 53¢$0 BETLUMEN AI$25K by OCT 31YES 79¢NO 21¢$1,369 BETORBIT ROBOTICS1,000 by NOV 1YES 41¢NO 59¢$0 BETNIMBUS NOTES50,000 by NOV 7YES 58¢NO 42¢$0 BETRIVER HEALTH500 by NOV 15YES 46¢NO 54¢$18 BETMARIGOLD MEALS1,000 by NOV 20YES 52¢NO 48¢$0 BETFIELDNOTE STUDIO$12K by NOV 30YES 55¢NO 45¢$0 BETSCAFFOLD LABS10,000 by NOV 30YES 60¢NO 40¢$48 BETPINECONE LEARNING3,000 by DEC 1YES 71¢NO 29¢$0 BETKESTREL SECURITY$250K by DEC 15YES 38¢NO 62¢$0 BETCOPPERLINE STUDIO250,000 by DEC 31YES 60¢NO 40¢$0 BETQUILL HEALTH$40K by DEC 31YES 44¢NO 56¢$0 BETTHE LEDGER LETTER100,000 by DEC 31YES 66¢NO 34¢$0 BETSABLE ANALYTICS800 by OCT 15YES 33¢NO 67¢$0 BETDRIFTWOOD GAMES25,000 by OCT 24YES 64¢NO 36¢$0 BETHARBOR COFFEE CLUB2,000 by OCT 31YES 47¢NO 53¢$0 BETLUMEN AI$25K by OCT 31YES 79¢NO 21¢$1,369 BETORBIT ROBOTICS1,000 by NOV 1YES 41¢NO 59¢$0 BETNIMBUS NOTES50,000 by NOV 7YES 58¢NO 42¢$0 BETRIVER HEALTH500 by NOV 15YES 46¢NO 54¢$18 BETMARIGOLD MEALS1,000 by NOV 20YES 52¢NO 48¢$0 BETFIELDNOTE STUDIO$12K by NOV 30YES 55¢NO 45¢$0 BETSCAFFOLD LABS10,000 by NOV 30YES 60¢NO 40¢$48 BETPINECONE LEARNING3,000 by DEC 1YES 71¢NO 29¢$0 BETKESTREL SECURITY$250K by DEC 15YES 38¢NO 62¢$0 BETCOPPERLINE STUDIO250,000 by DEC 31YES 60¢NO 40¢$0 BETQUILL HEALTH$40K by DEC 31YES 44¢NO 56¢$0 BETTHE LEDGER LETTER100,000 by DEC 31YES 66¢NO 34¢$0 BET

Milestone markets

Bet on companies you believe in. Then help them win.

Every market is one company, one number, one date. Buy YES or NO on whether they hit it, push the odds yourself, and get paid when the data says so.

See the board How it works

15OPEN MARKETS$1,435DEMO VOLUME44BETTORS

Production demo. Real ledger, demo credits with no cash value. Token not launched.

Lumen AIRevenue · most bet

Demo

Will Lumen AI reach $25,000 in monthly recurring revenue by October 31?

79%CHANCE OF YES

YES 79¢NO 21¢

BUY YES79¢pays $1 if the target is hit BUY NO21¢pays $1 if it is missed

$18K nowtarget $25K

Closes Oct 31Source Demo ledger$1,369 bet so far

Someone claimed a funded position on Lumen AI

4 HR AGO · $40 DEMO

16 bets on Lumen AI, latest 51 NO

4 HR AGO · $252 DEMO

A Position Waterfall was funded on Lumen AI

4 HR AGO · $120 DEMO

The board

Company targets with a hard number and a hard deadline.

Every market closes on a date, is read from a named source, and pays $1 per winning share. Rules are fixed before the first bet.

Most bet

Lumen AI$25K monthly recurring revenue by Oct 31

79%

The board's biggest pool of demo credits right now.

Closing soon

Sable Analytics800 launch post upvotes by Oct 15

33%

22 days until the source is read.

The favorite

Pinecone Learning3,000 paid seats by Dec 1

71%

Highest chance of YES on the board.

The long shot

Kestrel Security$250K annual contract value signed by Dec 15

38%

Lowest chance of YES. Biggest payout if it lands.

SortCHECKING THE LEDGER

Sable AnalyticsLaunches · Closes in 22 days

Demo

Will Sable Analytics get 800 upvotes on its launch post by October 15?

33%CHANCE OF YES

0of 800 · 0% there

YES33¢NO67¢

Closes Oct 15Source Demo ledger$0 bet

Driftwood GamesAdoption · Closes in 31 days

Demo

Will Driftwood Games pass 25,000 wishlists by October 24?

64%CHANCE OF YES

19,800of 25,000 · 79% there

YES64¢NO36¢

Closes Oct 24Source Demo ledger$0 bet

Harbor Coffee ClubCommerce · Closes in 38 days

Demo

Will Harbor Coffee Club ship 2,000 subscription boxes in October?

47%CHANCE OF YES

1,180of 2,000 · 59% there

YES47¢NO53¢

Closes Oct 31Source Demo ledger$0 bet

Lumen AIRevenue · Closes in 38 days

Demo

Will Lumen AI reach $25,000 in monthly recurring revenue by October 31?

79%CHANCE OF YES

$18Kof $25K · 74% there

YES79¢NO21¢

Closes Oct 31Source Demo ledger$1,369 bet

Orbit RoboticsLaunches · Closes in 39 days

Demo

Will Orbit Robotics have 1,000 customers on firmware v2 by November 1?

41%CHANCE OF YES

412of 1,000 · 41% there

YES41¢NO59¢

Closes Nov 1Source Demo ledger$0 bet

Nimbus NotesAdoption · Closes in 45 days

Demo

Will Nimbus Notes pass 50,000 App Store downloads by November 7?

58%CHANCE OF YES

31,400of 50,000 · 63% there

YES58¢NO42¢

Closes Nov 7Source Demo ledger$0 bet

River HealthCustomers · Closes in 53 days

Demo

Will River Health reach 500 paid members by November 15?

46%CHANCE OF YES

318of 500 · 64% there

YES46¢NO54¢

Closes Nov 15Source Demo ledger$18 bet

Marigold MealsCustomers · Closes in 58 days

Demo

Will Marigold Meals reach 1,000 paying subscribers by November 20?

52%CHANCE OF YES

640of 1,000 · 64% there

YES52¢NO48¢

Closes Nov 20Source Demo ledger$0 bet

Fieldnote StudioRevenue · Closes in 68 days

Demo

Will Fieldnote Studio reach $12,000 in monthly recurring revenue by November 30?

55%CHANCE OF YES

$8.9Kof $12K · 74% there

YES55¢NO45¢

Closes Nov 30Source Demo ledger$0 bet

Scaffold LabsAdoption · Closes in 68 days

Demo

Will Scaffold Labs reach 10,000 public repository stars by November 30?

60%CHANCE OF YES

6,420of 10,000 · 64% there

YES60¢NO40¢

Closes Nov 30Source Demo ledger$48 bet

Pinecone LearningCustomers · Closes in 69 days

Demo

Will Pinecone Learning reach 3,000 paid seats by December 1?

71%CHANCE OF YES

2,310of 3,000 · 77% there

YES71¢NO29¢

Closes Dec 1Source Demo ledger$0 bet

Kestrel SecurityRevenue · Closes in 83 days

Demo

Will Kestrel Security close $250,000 in annual contracts by December 15?

38%CHANCE OF YES

$140Kof $250K · 56% there

YES38¢NO62¢

Closes Dec 15Source Demo ledger$0 bet

Copperline StudioAudience · Closes in 99 days

Closest to target

Will Copperline Studio reach 250,000 channel subscribers by December 31?

60%CHANCE OF YES

213,000of 250,000 · 85% there

YES60¢NO40¢

Closes Dec 31Source Demo ledger$0 bet

Quill HealthRevenue · Closes in 99 days

Demo

Will Quill Health reach $40,000 in monthly recurring revenue by December 31?

44%CHANCE OF YES

$28Kof $40K · 70% there

YES44¢NO56¢

Closes Dec 31Source Demo ledger$0 bet

The Ledger LetterAudience · Closes in 99 days

Demo

Will The Ledger Letter reach 100,000 newsletter subscribers by December 31?

66%CHANCE OF YES

74,500of 100,000 · 75% there

YES66¢NO34¢

Closes Dec 31Source Demo ledger$0 bet

How you play

Pick a company. Bet on the number. Get paid when the data comes in.

Pick a company target

Every market is one company, one metric, one date. Lumen AI hitting $25,000 MRR by October 31, for example.

Sable Analytics800 launch post upvotes by Oct 15YES 33¢

Driftwood Games25,000 store wishlists by Oct 24YES 64¢

Harbor Coffee Club2,000 boxes shipped in october by Oct 31YES 47¢

Bet YES or NO

YES at 60¢ means the board gives it a 60 percent chance. Buy as many shares as you like. Sell any time before close.

SideYES

Shares100 at 60¢

You pay$60.60 incl. 1% fee

If you are right$100.00

Get paid from the source

On the deadline FIRM reads the number from the named source. Winning shares pay $1 each. Nobody votes.

Oct 31, 23:59 UTCStripe read

MRR$25,300

Target$25,000

ResultYES · paid $100

The twist

The only odds you can move.

Polymarket bans influence. FIRM designs for it. The company wants the crowd to push the number, the rules say exactly how, and the source decides.

Your bet100 YES at 60¢

Pays $100 if Lumen AI hits $25K by Oct 31.

Allowed actionsRefer a customer. Buy the product. Share the market.

Written into the market rules before the first bet. Every action is logged against the market.

The number moves$18K to $25K

Read from the source, not from a screenshot or a vote.

Payout$100.00

Net +$39.40 on the bet, plus whatever the company paid for the referral.

Now: $18K monthly recurring revenueAfter referrals and purchases: past the target

Position Waterfalls

A limited pool turns sharing into a race.

A sponsor funds a fixed number of dollar-denominated YES or NO positions. People share the market and claim before the pool runs out. The live price determines the shares.

01A sponsor funds the pool

A $5,000 YES Waterfall creates 500 claims worth $10 each. The funding is reserved before the first claim.

500 positions available

02You share before it runs out

The X post promotes the company, the market, and the number of funded positions still available.

327 claims remaining

03You claim $10 of YES

FIRM buys the position at the live quote. At 60¢, $10 buys about 16 shares before price impact and fees.

$10 YES claimed

04You win with the company

Every referral pushes MRR toward $25,000. Hit it, and each share pays $1.

Pays $10 if YES

OPEN MARKETS15demo release

COMPANIES LISTED18source-linked profiles

DEMO CREDITS BET$1,435no cash value

BETTORS44across all markets

What is real today

A working demo on a real ledger. Not yet real money.

Built and running

Markets, prices, and an exact-quote bet slip on a bounded market maker
Buy and sell with demo credits on a PostgreSQL ledger
Disclosed actions, Position Drops, and limited Position Waterfalls
Company listing from public sources and direct Stripe connection architecture

Not yet

Cash deposits, withdrawals, or payouts
A real connected company or a live-resolved market
Any traction claim
The FIRM token