Every market starts with the answer key.

The metric, source, deadline, fallback, dispute window, void rule, and allowed participant influence are fixed and visible before a position is taken.

EXAMPLE MARKET

Will Lumen AI reach $50K MRR by December 31?

YES64¢NO36¢

Metric: Normalized monthly recurring revenue
Source: Company-authorized Stripe connection
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC
YES condition: Metric is at least $50,000 at determination
Source failure: Pause 72 hours, then use the fixed fallback or void
Influence: Trading, referrals, sharing, and product purchases are allowed

DEMO LEDGER

One dollar of winning value. No mystery accounting.

1Buy a sideThe AMM calculates shares from the current probability and order size.

2Position is recordedCost, fee, shares, and average price are written as one idempotent transaction.

3Metric resolvesThe named evidence source produces a preliminary result and dispute clock.

4Winning shares settleEach winning demo share settles at $1. Voids follow the rule fixed at open.

Current release uses funded demo credits only. No deposit, withdrawal, custody, or live-money settlement is represented.

EDGE CASES

The uncomfortable questions are part of the product.

A trader buys the company's product

Allowed. FIRM is a participatory market. Product purchases may influence the metric and are disclosed before the market opens.

An insider trades

The demo product shows market activity and source evidence separately. A live-money release requires the final eligibility and disclosure policy.

The metric source goes stale

Trading pauses. The market waits up to 72 hours for a valid observation, then follows its published fallback or void rule.

A payment is refunded

The normalized source metric updates. The market resolves from the metric definition fixed at open, including how refunds and disputes are treated.

Someone shares only to claim a drop

The drop is funded before it is offered. Acceptance, expiry, rejection, and duplicate claims conserve the ledger.

The company never claims its profile

Community markets can still use accepted public sources. They remain labeled community-created and cannot claim owner authorization.

The company connects Stripe later

The owner can claim the profile, authorize the direct source, and create official markets. Existing rules and revisions remain visible.

The goal is reached early

The market still follows its fixed determination time unless the published rule explicitly permits early resolution.

YES and NO prices do not total exactly one dollar

The demo AMM quotes both sides from one bounded cost function. Rounding is shown, and accounting reconciles to the ledger.

A market is disputed

The preliminary result, evidence, and dispute window stay visible. Settlement waits until the published window closes.

A market is voided

Eligible demo positions are unwound under the published void rule. Fees and transfers reconcile in the audit record.

$FIRM has not launched

Nothing in the current product requires it. Company discovery, markets, data connections, and demo Position Drops work first.