How it works
Bet on companies you believe in. Then help them win.
FIRM runs prediction markets on real company milestones. Polymarket prices elections. DraftKings prices games. FIRM prices whether a company hits its number, and it is the only market where you are allowed to help.
Three steps
Pick a company. Bet on the number. Get paid when the data comes in.
01
Pick a company target
One company, one metric, one deadline. Revenue, paid members, GitHub stars, downloads, subscribers. If it is a public number with a date, it can be a market.
02
Bet YES or NO
A price is a probability. YES at 60¢ means the board gives it a 60 percent chance. Every share pays $1 if you are right and $0 if you are wrong. Sell any time before close.
03
Get paid from the source
On the deadline FIRM reads the number from the named source: Stripe, GitHub, an accepted public page. Nobody votes. Evidence and any dispute stay attached to the market.
The twist
The only odds you can move.
Each market lists the actions it allows before the first bet: refer a customer, buy the product, share the market. The company wants the crowd to push the number. The source decides the result.
Pays $100 if Lumen AI hits $25,000 MRR by Oct 31.
Written into the rules. Logged against the market.
Read from Stripe on the deadline.
Net +$39.40, plus whatever the company paid for the referral.
Why companies play along: a target becomes distribution, referrals, customers, and a public proof record. The company keeps its own checkout. Customer revenue never passes through FIRM.
Referral bets
Companies pay for referrals with bets instead of coupons.
In the product this is called a Position Drop. The shares are bought and paid for before they move. Nothing is minted.
Lumen AI buys 1,000 YES shares on its own market. Rule: 10 shares per referred paying customer.
1,000 YES in escrowYour friend signs up through your link. Stripe records the new customer.
Referral verified10 YES shares land in your account, yours to hold or sell.
+10 YESEvery referral pushes MRR toward the target. Hit it, and each share pays $1.
Pays $10 if YESWhere FIRM sits
Everyone nearby does one piece of this. Nobody does the whole loop.
What is real today
A working demo on a real ledger. Not yet real money.
- Markets, prices, and a bet slip on a bounded market maker
- Buy and sell with demo credits on a PostgreSQL ledger
- Disclosed actions and referral bets
- Company listing from public sources, Stripe connection architecture
- Cash deposits, withdrawals, or payouts
- A real connected company or a live-resolved market
- Any traction claim
- The FIRM token: 10,000,000,000 fixed supply, proposed, launched only after the network works